The EU Directive on Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence has sparked fierce debate about the regulation of supply chains. The directive’s objectives are aligned with European values. However, it raises concerns that the compliance costs of social and environmental regulations may be privatised in complex supply networks, particularly in third countries with weak enforcement mechanisms. This paper suggests options to make the directive more effective and efficient. It suggests excluding countries with sufficient regulatory systems and focusing only on supplier-buyer relationships instead of the entire network. Public agencies should set harmonised regulatory standards, interpret the regulations and organise a private certification scheme in which certification companies assume liabilities. The proposed system resembles the market for financial auditors.

Globalisation has had undesirable effects on the labour standards embedded in the products we consume. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of supply chain due diligence regulations, such as the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). We construct a full-scale network model derived from structural business statistics of 30 million EU firms to quantify the likelihood of links to firms potentially involved in human rights abuses in the European supply chain. The 900 million supply links of these firms are modelled in a way that is consistent with multiregional input-output data, EU import data, and stylized facts of firm-level production networks. We find that this network exhibits a small world effect with three degrees of separation, meaning that most firms are no more than three steps away from each other in the network. Consequently, we find that about 8.5 percent of EU companies are at risk of having child or forced labour in the first tier of their supply chains, about 82.4 percent are likely to have such offenders at the second tier and more than 99.1 percent have such offenders at the third tier. We also profile companies by country, sector, and size for the likelihood of having human rights violations or child and forced labour violations at a given tier in their supply chain, revealing considerable heterogeneity across EU companies. Our results show that supply chain due diligence regulations that focus on monitoring individual buyer-supplier links, as currently proposed in the CSDDD, are likely to be ineffective due to a high degree of redundancy and the fact that individual company value chains cannot be properly isolated from the global supply network. Rather, to maximise cost-effectiveness without compromising due diligence coverage, we suggest that regulations should focus on monitoring individual suppliers.

This paper studies the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. We find that the sign and magnitude of the effect depend on whether uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, applying a cross-sectional gravity model, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

This paper investigates the relationship between the use of service inputs and integration in global value chains. Using macro and detailed firm-level data (for 1990-2017), the study documents the extent of India's integration into global value chains. Older, larger, and more productive firms and firms with a higher leverage ratio are more likely to be deeply integrated into global value chains. Firms in the information technology services and electronics industry are more deeply integrated into global value chains, compared with textiles. Services are the engine for many global value chain industries as they help coordinate the different stages of production across geographical locations. The findings suggest that both the intensity of service usage as well as the composition or type of service used are important. Firms using service inputs, particularly complex services and information technology and information technology-enabling services intensively are typically more deeply integrated into global value chains.

This paper explores the relationship between the use of service inputs, participation in global value chains, and firm productivity. Services play the role of both an intermediate input in production and a coordinator. Using a detailed Indian firm-level data set from 1990-2017, the paper estimates the productivity premium associated with varying depths of global value chain integration and different intensities and types of services used in the production. The study finds that firms in global value chains have a productivity premium between 13 and 22 percent relative to domestic firms, with some variation based on the depth of global value chain integration and the sector to which the firm belongs. Both the type of service inputs used (composition of services) and the origin of services (whether sourced domestically or from abroad) matter for firm performance. While higher aggregate service input use (as captured by the share of expenditure on service inputs) is not necessarily associated with an increase in productivity, increased use of complex services and information technology services is associated with higher productivity. The use of imported services is associated with higher productivity. Moreover, firms that are more deeply integrated in global value chains benefit more from importing services.